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Initially, Trump gave the impression to adopt a firm position concerning Ukraine. Following delivering statements of "serious ramifications" last August in case Russia's president continued blocking peace negotiations, he eventually imposed substantial penalties on the Russian primary petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision significantly hindered the Russian leader's capability to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

But, via his recently unveiled detailed peace plan for the conflict, which was created by US and Russian representatives lacking Ukrainian or EU input, he has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly approach.

Favoring Aggression

This proposal would in practice benefit Putin for occupying Ukraine while putting Ukraine's political freedom in danger. Despite bold statements that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be upheld", large portions of the proposal in reality compromise that essential independence. What represents a Kremlin dream would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his business experience, Trump seems to consider the war as a simple territorial dispute, implying ceding Russia a section of Ukrainian land will satisfy the president. But, Putin's invasion is not merely about dominating a damaged swath of industrial-devastated territory in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democratic governance – and Putin's clear intention to weaken it so it stops serves as an enticing standard for the Russian people of the accountable government that Putin's growing dictatorship denies them.

Territorial Giveaways

Although maintaining in place the currently split regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the proposal would compel Ukraine to abandon the whole this eastern territory. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in more than a ten years of warfare, this surrender would leave Ukraine's military defenses severely weakened.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's well-known "defensive line", the well-established military defenses that are a critical impediment to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these positions, leaving Putin a unobstructed way to Kyiv if he eventually opt to restart the conflict.

Military Reductions

Additionally, in a step that would make additional fighting easier for Russia, the plan would force Ukraine to reduce the scale of its military from their current 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Notably, the initiative sets no such limits on the invading army.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's attempts to portray the nation's legitimate administration as Nazis, the proposal declares: "All Nazi doctrine and actions must be opposed and banned." Seemingly to highlight this aspect, it insists that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal imposes no obligation that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by holding elections in his own country.

Security Guarantees

Certainly, the initiative makes Russia pledge not to "enter bordering nations" and to "incorporate in law its policy of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". Yet considering that the Russian leadership has violated similar accords in the history – such as the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to recognize Ukraine's borders in return for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow agreed to a ceasefire and a restoration of captured areas in the region to the government – why should we trust Russia this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western defense commitments. While the plan warns of a "decisive joint armed reaction" in case Russia restart its aggression, and provides that "The nation will receive strong protection assurances", the particulars include unclear to troubling. The initiative would not just deny Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit alliance nations from positioning military personnel on Ukrainian territory, effectively preventing the reassurance force, presumptively headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been depending to stop Russia from rebuilding his weakened forces, rearming, and reinvading.

World Response

A separate parallel deal reportedly would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any future "serious, planned, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an assault jeopardizing the tranquility of the transatlantic community." This implies a defense action. However in contrast to a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best protection against renewed invasion – the success of the side agreement would hinge on the dedication of alliance members, including the US administration, to react militarily to Russia's attacks, a response they have {not