From Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro.

A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fed a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”