Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Process

Several members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.